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Evolution of Coastal Environments under Inundation Scenarios Using an Oceanographic Model and Remote Sensing Data

TitleEvolution of Coastal Environments under Inundation Scenarios Using an Oceanographic Model and Remote Sensing Data
Publication TypeArticolo su Rivista peer-reviewed
Year of Publication2024
AuthorsCappucci, Sergio, Carillo Adriana, Iacono Roberto, Moretti Lorenzo, Palma Massimiliano, Righini Gaia, Antonioli Fabrizio, and Sannino Gianmaria
JournalRemote Sensing
Volume16
Issue16
Pagination2599
Date Published07-2024
ISSN20724292
KeywordsClimate change, Coastal environments, Coastal flooding, Coastal flooding map, Coastal zones, digital terrain model, EGMS and LC/LU, Floods, Ground-motion, MED 16, Oceanographic models, Relative sea level rise, Remote sensing, sea level, Water levels
Abstract

A new methodology to map Italian coastal areas at risk of flooding is presented. This approach relies on detailed projections of the future sea level from a high-resolution, three-dimensional model of the Mediterranean Sea circulation, on the best available digital terrain model of the Italian coasts, and on the most advanced satellite-derived data of ground motion, provided by the European Ground Motion Service of Copernicus. To obtain a reliable understanding of coastal evolution,  future sea level projections and estimates of the future vertical ground motion based on the currently available data were combined and spread over the digital terrain model, using a GIS-based approach specifically developed for this work. The coastal plains of Piombino-Follonica and Marina di Campo (Tuscany Region), Alghero-Fertilia (Sardinia), and Rome and Latina-Sabaudia (Lazio Region) were selected as test cases for the new approach. These coastal stretches are important for the ecosystems and the economic activities they host and are relatively stable areas from a geological point of view. Flood maps were constructed for these areas, for the reference periods 2010–2040, 2040–2070, and 2040–2099. Where possible, the new maps were compared with previous results, highlighting differences that are mainly due to the more refined and resolved sea-level projection and to the detailed Copernicus ground motion data. Coastal flooding was simulated by using the “bathtub” approach without considering the morphodynamic processes induced by waves and currents during the inundation process. The inundation zone was represented by the water level raised on a coastal DTM, selecting
all vulnerable areas that were below the predicted new water level. Consequent risk was related to the exposed asset.

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URLhttps://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/16/14/2599
DOI10.3390/rs16142599
Short TitleRemote Sensing
Citation Key12561